DOOH grew 10.2%, to £923m. New forecasts show ad market set to reach £45.2bn in 2025 and £47.8bn in 2026.
London, 30 April 2025: The latest Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report, published today, shows that the UK’s ad market recorded a 10.4% increase in investment to a total of £42.6bn in 2024. The latest dataset shows online formats, when combined, grew 13.2% last year with £4 in every £5 of ad budgets now spent online.
New AA/WARC forecasts show advertising is expected to rise by 6.3% to reach £45.2bn in 2025. Further growth is forecast for 2026, with an anticipated rise of 5.6% lifting the UK ad market’s value to £47.8bn next year. April’s forecasts have seen a slight downgrade from January’s predictions, factoring in a possible destabilising effect from the US trade tariffs on the wider global economy and a tougher economic backdrop leading to uncertainty in the advertising market.
2024 Overview
While the UK ad market grew 10.4% in nominal terms in 2024, this translated to a real term rise of 7.6% once inflation was accounted for. This growth was well ahead of the UK economy generally; GDP increased by 1.1% last year, while inflation persists.
Channels that saw a boost in spend during 2024 included online display, which gained an overall increase of 15.1%. This included social media, which accounted for 53% of overall online display, and retail media, which grew 22.7% year-on-year in 2024.
Total TV spend grew by 3.8% to a total of £5.3bn last year and the category has been newly redefined to include more video services. Previously, only broadcaster VOD (BVOD) was included within the VOD component of TV, but monitoring has been expanded to include ad-supported subscription video on demand (SVOD) such as Disney+, Netflix and Prime Video, advertising-based video on demand (AVOD) and FAST (free ad supported streaming TV).
Elsewhere, growth was again recorded in the search sector last year, with spend rising 12.8% to a total of £16.9bn. Search, including retail media platforms, accounted for two in five pounds spent on advertising in the UK last year. Out of home (OOH) (+7.7%), radio (+3.2%) and direct mail (+0.8%) all saw net gains in ad billings in 2024.
The latest figures also reveal the results of last year’s Christmas advertising season, which saw a 9.1% increase from the previous year. Search (+12.5%), online display (+15.4%), TV VOD (+23.2%) and cinema (+24.2%) were seen to have benefitted most from additional festive spend. Cinema’s strong final quarter was buoyed by a slate of well received films including Wicked, Gladiator II and Paddington in Peru.
Projections for 2025 and 2026
AA/WARC expects the UK advertising market to grow by 6.3% to reach £45.2bn this year, representing a 0.6 percentage point (pp) downgrade from January’s forecast and reflective of a toughening trading climate. Search (+8.2%) and online display (+9.1%) are set to continue recording gains, albeit at a slower rate than the recent years of double-digit growth, while cinema (+7.1%), out of home (+2.7%), radio (+1.9%) and TV (+0.9%) are still expected to end the year in positive territory.
The UK’s ad market is set to rise by a further 5.6% in 2026, by when it would be worth £47.8bn. TV is expected to grow to a total of £5.5bn in 2026 – a World Cup year – with VOD accounting for a third (32%) of all TV spend by the end of the forecast period. Search and online display – inclusive of retail and social media – are set to account for over 80% of the UK ad market at that time.
Stephen Woodford, CEO, Advertising Association, said: “While the UK advertising industry growth is well ahead of UK growth, it’s worth noting business confidence may weaken due to geopolitical headwinds and regulatory uncertainty, which could impact on the way businesses commit to spend on advertising. However, it’s important to remember once again that advertising supports competition and promotes innovation, and helps to create jobs across the UK, so a healthy advertising sector is integral to a healthy economy. The UK advertising market is constantly dynamic, with these latest figures recording the rise of retail media and the growth of advertising opportunities from video-on-demand, reducing cost of access to TV content for people.”
James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, said: “Though we expect investment to grow in the coming years, we are cognisant that confidence in the UK’s advertising market remains fragile, burdened by sustained economic stagnation and recently introduced business taxes outlined in the Autumn statement. The introduction of new trade tariffs by the Trump administration adds further complexity, particularly for sectors with high exposure to international supply chains.
“At worst, such disruption stands to erode margins, with any increase in operational costs for businesses potentially translating to higher prices at the till. The temptation to cut ad budgets in such a climate will be elevated, therefore, but WARC research clearly demonstrates that short-termism poses an inordinate risk to enduring brand equity.”
| Media | 2023 £m |
2024 £m |
2024 year-on-year% change |
2025(f) year-on-year% change |
2026(f) year-on-year% change |
| Search | 14,995.0 | 16,912.5 | 12.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% |
| Online display* | 14,477.6 | 16,669.8 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 6.8% |
| TV | 5,080.3 | 5,271.4 | 3.8% | 0.9% | 4.0% |
| of which VOD | 1,060.0 | 1,332.7 | 25.7% | 17.1% | 13.5% |
| Out of home | 1,295.3 | 1,394.5 | 7.7% | 2.7% | 4.3% |
| of which digital | 841.3 | 926.9 | 10.2% | 3.2% | 5.9% |
| Online classified* | 1,080.8 | 1,017.0 | -5.9% | -2.2% | -0.9% |
| Direct mail | 956.7 | 964.3 | 0.8% | -3.7% | -2.2% |
| National newsbrands | 758.9 | 726.5 | -4.3% | -3.4% | -1.3% |
| of which online | 337.8 | 346.2 | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Radio | 715.5 | 738.2 | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| of which online | 72.2 | 77.0 | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% |
| Magazine brands | 505.5 | 469.3 | -7.2% | -5.2% | -2.4% |
| of which online | 273.4 | 258.9 | -5.3% | -4.5% | -1.5% |
| Regional newsbrands | 454.2 | 438.2 | -3.5% | -3.4% | -1.0% |
| of which online | 239.4 | 248.4 | 3.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| Cinema | 219.9 | 212.4 | -3.4% | 7.1% | 4.0% |
| TOTAL UK ADSPEND | 38,556.5 | 42,550.9 | 10.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% |
| Note: Video-on-demand (VOD), digital revenues for newsbrands, magazine brands, and radio are also included within online display and classified totals. Online classified also includes revenues for national and regional newsbrands, as well as B2B magazine brands. Care should be taken to avoid double counting these series. Online radio includes targeted in-stream radio/audio advertising sold by UK commercial radio companies, together with online S&P inventory. TV VOD includes broadcaster (BVOD), advertiser-funded (AVOD) and subscription (SVOD) services which include advertising. Source: AA/WARC Expenditure Report, April 2025 |
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The quarterly Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report is the definitive guide to advertising expenditure in the UK, with data for all key advertising media and sub formats dating back to 1982 and forecasts spanning eight quarters ahead.
For more information, please contact:
Advertising Association
Matt Bourn, Director of Communications
Mariella Brown, Senior Communications Manager
WARC
Amanda Benfell, Head of PR & Press
T: +44 (0) 20 7467 8125
About the Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report
The Advertising Association/WARC quarterly Expenditure Report is the definitive guide to advertising expenditure in the UK. Impartial and independent of any media channel or agency affiliation, it is the only source of historical quarterly ad spend data and forecasts for the different media for the coming eight quarters. With data from 1982, this comprehensive and detailed review of advertising spend includes the AA/WARC’s own quarterly survey of all national newspapers, regional newspaper data collated in conjunction with Local Media Works and magazine statistics from WARC’s own panels. Data for other media channels are compiled in conjunction with UK industry trade bodies and organisations, notably the Internet Advertising Bureau, Outsmart, Radiocentre and the Royal Mail.
All data are net of discounts and include agency commission, but exclude production costs. The survey was launched in 1981 and has produced data on a quarterly basis ever since.
Methodology for WARC’s quarterly forecasts
Analysis of annual ad spend data over the past 35 years shows that there is a link between annual changes in GDP and annual changes in ad spend (after allowing for inflation, and excluding recruitment ad spend). Over this period, GDP changes account for about two thirds of the change in ad spend. WARC has developed its own forecasting model to generate forecasts for two years based on assumptions about future economic growth. The model provides an indication of likely overall spend levels – adjusted to allow for short-term factors (Olympics, World Cup etc).
The Expenditure Report (www.warc.com/expenditurereport) launched online in February 2010 and combines data from the discontinued print publications the Quarterly Survey of Advertising Expenditure and the Advertising Forecast. It is relied upon daily by the world’s largest brands, ad agencies, media owners, investment banks and academic institutions. Alongside over 200 readymade tables, subscribers can create their own customised tables for analysis of different media and time periods, as well as track the different media’s share of ad spend. All reports can be exported from the online interface. An annual subscription is priced at £760 for AA members and £1,175 for nonmembers.
About the Advertising Association
The Advertising Association promotes the role and rights of responsible advertising – trusted, inclusive, and sustainable – and its value to people, society, businesses, and the economy. Responsible businesses understand that there is little point in an advertisement that people cannot trust. That’s why, over 50 years ago, the Advertising Association led UK advertising towards a system of independent self-regulation which has since been adopted around the world. There are nearly thirty UK trade associations representing advertising, media, and marketing. Through the Advertising Association they come together with a single voice when speaking to policy makers and influencers.
About WARC – The global authority on marketing effectiveness
For over 35 years WARC has been powering the marketing segment by providing rigorous and unbiased evidence, expertise and guidance to make marketers more effective. Across four platforms – WARC Strategy, WARC Creative, WARC Media, WARC Digital Commerce – its services include 100,000+ case studies, best practice guides, research papers, special reports, advertising trend data, news & opinion articles, as well as awards, events and advisory services. WARC operates out of London, New York, Singapore and Shanghai, servicing a community of over 75,000 marketers in more than 1,300 companies across 100+ markets and collaborates with 50+ industry partners.
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